1 View data

2 Summary statistics table

3 Group size

There is some degree of imbalance on group sizes. There are 115 countries (76.2%) that have full 23 time points measurements, 20 countries with 22 measurements, 7 with 21 points, 6 with 19 points, the last 3 countries have 14, 13, 11 time points, respectively.

##       number_country
## 11                 1
## 13                 1
## 14                 1
## 19                 6
## 21                 7
## 22                20
## 23               115
## Total            151

3.1 Distribution of time point

4 Overview of the outcome variable

total_deaths_per_million

##    vars    n   mean     sd median trimmed    mad  min     max   range skew
## X1    1 3384 480.46 769.77 106.95  308.39 153.81 0.01 6170.19 6170.18 2.61
##    kurtosis    se
## X1     9.59 13.23

Although Peru is an outlier, removing it from the data does not change much the fitted line.

4.1 Distribution of outcome variable - highly right skewed

4.2 Top 5 countries with highest death in first time point 2020-04-01

4.3 Top 5 countries with highest death in the last time point 2022-02-01

4.4 Linear regression line for each country

4.5 View outcome by Unitary vs. Federal States

Many extreme observations in both systems. Unitary group has larger variation. Federal states have higher mean and less variance.

4.6 Distribution of democracy

raw scale of democracy in full data

##    vars    n  mean    sd median trimmed   mad  min  max range  skew kurtosis
## X1    1 3384 56.04 21.75   58.5   55.99 27.28 13.2 98.7  85.5 -0.04    -1.07
##      se
## X1 0.37

raw scale of democracy in subset of data of 38 countries, when include trust_gov data

##    vars   n  mean    sd median trimmed   mad  min  max range  skew kurtosis
## X1    1 873 79.18 13.61   80.3   80.94 11.71 31.1 98.7  67.6 -1.55     3.25
##      se
## X1 0.46

standardized scale of democracy in full data

##    vars    n mean sd median trimmed  mad   min  max range  skew kurtosis   se
## X1    1 3384    0  1   0.11       0 1.25 -1.97 1.96  3.93 -0.04    -1.07 0.02

Join distribution of democracy and Covid mortality

In the pooled data, there is a positive relationship between democracy and Covid mortality rate. Note that this is total effect that is ignoring measurement nested in country unit.

4.7 Distribution of trust in government

raw scale

##    vars   n  mean    sd median trimmed  mad   min   max range skew kurtosis
## X1    1 873 49.89 16.22  46.48   48.92 15.2 17.15 84.63 67.49 0.44    -0.44
##      se
## X1 0.55

standardized scale

##    vars   n mean sd median trimmed  mad   min  max range skew kurtosis   se
## X1    1 873    0  1  -0.21   -0.06 0.94 -2.02 2.14  4.16 0.44    -0.44 0.03

Note that number of countries that have data on trust in government is only limited to 38, compared to the bigger sample size of 151 countries above. Democracy in this subset ranges from 31.1 (Russia) to 98.7 (Norway). View summary of democracy in this smaller sample.

##    vars   n  mean    sd median trimmed   mad  min  max range  skew kurtosis
## X1    1 873 79.18 13.61   80.3   80.94 11.71 31.1 98.7  67.6 -1.55     3.25
##      se
## X1 0.46

4.8 Distribution of government effectiveness

raw scale

##    vars    n mean   sd median trimmed  mad   min  max range skew kurtosis   se
## X1    1 3339 0.02 0.98  -0.07       0 0.96 -2.28 2.22   4.5 0.21    -0.59 0.02

standardized scale

##    vars    n mean sd median trimmed  mad   min  max range skew kurtosis   se
## X1    1 3339    0  1  -0.09   -0.02 0.98 -2.35 2.25  4.59 0.21    -0.59 0.02

5 Check for correlation among predictors

##                 gdp_percap     democracy       gov_eff health_index
## gdp_percap    1.0000000000  0.7156173785  8.104987e-01 0.4914180526
## democracy     0.7156173785  1.0000000000  8.008041e-01 0.4814460157
## gov_eff       0.8104986675  0.8008041213  1.000000e+00 0.6102998008
## health_index  0.4914180526  0.4814460157  6.102998e-01 1.0000000000
## trust_gov     0.6216310047  0.4269486780  5.791077e-01 0.2995094613
## month        -0.0007499747 -0.0002771089 -3.672145e-06 0.0001557648
## year         -0.0010922066 -0.0004035605 -5.347834e-06 0.0002268441
##                 trust_gov         month          year
## gdp_percap    0.621631005 -7.499747e-04 -1.092207e-03
## democracy     0.426948678 -2.771089e-04 -4.035605e-04
## gov_eff       0.579107720 -3.672145e-06 -5.347834e-06
## health_index  0.299509461  1.557648e-04  2.268441e-04
## trust_gov     1.000000000 -1.043874e-03 -1.520219e-03
## month        -0.001043874  1.000000e+00 -4.572105e-01
## year         -0.001520219 -4.572105e-01  1.000000e+00

6 Calculate variance inflation factor (VIF) to dectects multicollinearity

Check if any predictor are already largely explained by other predictors. Result: All VIF are smaller than 10, the limit value often recommended as a good limit.

6.1 Democracy ~ other predictors

##              gov_eff           gdp_percap         health_index 
##             3.810623             3.273623             1.954295 
## unitary_semi_federal            trust_gov 
##             1.254340             1.696632

6.2 Government effectiveness ~ other predictors

##            democracy           gdp_percap         health_index 
##             2.029353             1.794391             2.470565 
## unitary_semi_federal 
##             1.344000

6.3 Trust_gov ~ other predictors

##            democracy              gov_eff           gdp_percap 
##             2.902786             4.842756             3.075865 
##         health_index unitary_semi_federal 
##             1.931409             1.251883

6.4 Federal ~ other predictors

##    trust_gov    democracy      gov_eff   gdp_percap health_index 
##     1.724965     2.957052     5.017365     3.421911     1.606610